China Moving Up? I Wish I Had Read this First

I wish I had read this first. Not that it would have changed anything about my recent Coffee, Tea, or C++ editorial. No, but it might have given me more grist for the mill.

At issue is a new study of worldwide technological competitiveness that suggests China may soon rival the U.S. as the principal driver of the world economy. If that happens, it will mark the first time in nearly a century that two nations have competed for leadership as equals.

The High Tech Indicators Technology-based Competitiveness of 33 Nations study suggests that China will soon pass the U.S. in the critical ability to develop basic science and technology, turn those developments into products and services, and then market them to the world. Though China is often seen as just a low-cost producer of manufactured goods, the study conducted by Georgia Institute of Technology researchers shows that China has much bigger aspirations.

The study ranks 33 nations relative to one another on "technological standing," an output factor that indicates each nation’s recent success in exporting high technology products. Four major input factors help build future technological standing:

• National orientation toward technological competitiveness
• Socioeconomic infrastructure
• Technological infrastructure
• Productive capacity.

Each indicator is based on a combination of statistical data and expert opinions.

The 2007 statistics show China with a technological standing of 82.8, compared to 76.1 for the U.S., 66.8 for Germany, and 66.0 for Japan. China’s score was 22.5 11 years ago, while the U.S. peaked in 1999 with a score of 95.4.

Recent statistics for the value of technology products exported put China behind the U.S. by the amount of "a rounding error": about $100 million. If that trend continues, China will shortly pass the U.S. in that measure of technological leadership.

China’s emphasis on training scientists and engineers suggests it will continue to grow its ability to innovate. In the U.S., the training of scientists and engineers has lagged, and post-9/11 immigration barriers have kept out international scholars who could help fill the gap.

China is becoming a leader in R&D, the study notes. For instance, China now leads the world in publications on nanotechnology, though U.S. papers still receive more citations.

Posted by Jon Erickson at 05:40 PM  Permalink